Elon Musk’s $12 Million Bet Falls Short in Wisconsin Supreme Court Race

 Tech billionaire Elon Musk is downplaying the impact of a high-stakes political loss after his preferred candidate in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race was defeated, despite Musk pouring more than $12 million into the campaign and appearing personally in the state just days before the vote.

Liberal judge Susan Crawford defeated conservative former Attorney General Brad Schimel in Tuesday’s election, keeping the court under a 4-3 liberal majority and dealing a symbolic blow to both former President Donald Trump and Musk — two influential conservative backers of Schimel’s campaign.

“I expected to lose,” Musk wrote on X early Wednesday morning in response to a supporter thanking him for his effort. “But there is value to losing a piece for a positional gain.”

The post, which echoed the logic of a chess move — sacrificing one piece to set up a better position — was a curious reflection from one of the world’s most powerful and visible business leaders.

But for many Democrats, progressives, and judicial reform advocates, the result was less about long-term strategy and more about a critical, hard-fought win in a battleground state.

Though it was technically a nonpartisan judicial election, the race drew massive national attention due to its outsized importance.

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court holds immense power over issues including:

• State abortion laws

• Gerrymandering and redistricting

• Election administration

• Potential 2024 presidential election disputes

Crawford’s win ensures that the liberal majority will continue shaping decisions on these fronts, giving Democrats a crucial edge in a state Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020 — and where margins of victory are often razor-thin.

Elon Musk’s involvement in the race was bold and unusual, even by his standards.

He backed Brad Schimel, a staunch conservative and former Wisconsin attorney general known for opposing abortion rights and for advocating restrictive voting laws. Musk’s political action committee — “American Future” — funneled more than $12 million into advertising, field operations, and digital outreach on behalf of Schimel.

Musk also made headlines when he flew to Wisconsin the Sunday before the election, attending a private fundraiser with local Republican leaders and speaking at a closed-door roundtable on “judicial integrity and innovation.”

Critics immediately blasted the move as inappropriate billionaire interference in what is supposed to be a state-level judicial process. “Elon Musk thinks he can buy a court seat like it’s a Tesla factory permit,” said Wisconsin State Rep. Anna Vang (D-Madison). “But our democracy isn’t for sale.”

While Trump didn’t campaign in person, he posted multiple endorsements of Schimel on Truth Social, calling him “a defender of law and order” and “the kind of judge America needs.”

Still, the former president’s influence was far less visible than Musk’s in this race — perhaps strategically so. Following a string of poor performances by Trump-endorsed candidates in the 2022 midterms, some Republicans have sought to downplay his role in tightly contested local races.

Crawford’s win is nevertheless a setback for Trump, who had counted on a conservative shift in Wisconsin’s court to potentially influence legal fights during the 2024 campaign.

For Democrats, Crawford’s win was a rare and much-needed victory following a string of disappointing losses last November.

National Democratic organizations, including EMILY’s List, MoveOn, and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, had all invested in the race, albeit at levels far lower than Musk’s super PAC.

Crawford’s grassroots campaign raised roughly $4.8 million, with the majority of contributions coming from within Wisconsin. Her campaign focused heavily on protecting reproductive rights and maintaining the independence of the judiciary. 

“This win belongs to the people of Wisconsin,” Crawford said in her victory speech. “Not billionaires. Not politicians. Just the people.”

Despite spending more than twice as much as Crawford’s side, Musk’s influence may have backfired.

Political analysts point to several factors:

• Overexposure: Musk’s high-profile involvement in a judicial race drew criticism even from moderate conservatives who viewed it as meddling.

• Schimel’s record: The candidate’s hardline positions on abortion and voting rights turned off suburban voters, particularly women.

• Energized liberal base: After months of organizing around reproductive rights and court reform, Democratic voters showed up in large numbers.

This is not the first time Musk has made a high-profile political gamble. His takeover of Twitter (now X), alignment with conservative voices, and criticism of progressive causes have turned him into an unlikely culture war icon.

But his record in political endorsements is mixed at best.

He supported several unsuccessful candidates during the 2022 midterms, and his commentary on issues like transgender rights, ESG investing, and school board policy have sparked backlash from both the left and parts of the center.

Still, Musk appears undeterred. “Sometimes you lose battles to win wars,” one person close to Musk said Wednesday. “He’s playing a different kind of game — and most people don’t see the whole board.”

Beyond Musk or Schimel, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race highlights a growing national trend: the politicization of state-level judiciary races.

More and more, partisan and outside groups are pouring money into what were once low-turnout, low-stakes elections. In 2023 alone, more than $90 million was spent on state Supreme Court races across the country — a record high.

“We’re witnessing a shift where billionaires and PACs treat courts like legislative battlegrounds,” said Leah Wright, director of the Center for Judicial Accountability. “It’s dangerous for democracy.”

With Crawford’s win, liberals will retain a 4-3 majority on Wisconsin’s highest court through the 2025 judicial cycle. That gives Democrats breathing room as they prepare for potential legal fights around redistricting and 2024 election results.

For Musk, it’s unclear whether he’ll continue to invest in state-level politics or shift his focus elsewhere. Allies say he remains committed to “reforming institutions,” though critics say his involvement reflects hubris more than strategy.

As for Wisconsin? The people have spoken — and this time, money wasn’t enough to change their minds.