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Republicans are emerging from the latest special elections with a sense of unease and uncertainty about their prospects in the upcoming midterms.
Despite the intense efforts of President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk to push their political and policy agendas, including Trump’s continued influence over his party’s direction, the election results have raised troubling questions about the GOP’s ability to maintain control in critical districts.
The landslide victory by Democrats in Wisconsin and the unexpected underperformance of Republicans in traditionally safe Florida districts have left many GOP members reeling, with some fearing that the party’s grip on power may be weakening.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court election, one of the most closely watched races of the cycle, proved to be a significant blow for Republicans, despite the heavy involvement of Elon Musk and the financial backing from his America PAC. Musk’s investment of over $20 million in the election, combined with his personal involvement in rallying support for Republican candidate Brad Schimel, ultimately proved unsuccessful.
The race saw liberal candidate Susan Crawford secure a resounding 9-point victory, despite Musk’s efforts to sway public opinion and the tens of millions spent on campaign ads, rallies, and petition drives.
Pam Van Handel, Chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s Outagamie County, expressed shock at the loss. "I thought we had it in the bag," she said, reflecting the disbelief many in the GOP felt about the outcome.
Van Handel, along with many others, had pinned their hopes on Musk’s involvement, believing that his influence could give Schimel the edge. Instead, the election’s outcome was a stark reminder of the power of public sentiment and the deep divide that continues to grow in Wisconsin.
Musk’s $20 million investment included splashy and controversial tactics, such as paying $100 for each signature on a petition calling for the rejection of "activist judges," and offering $1 million checks to Republican voters.
Despite his efforts, the election ended in defeat for Schimel, much to the dismay of Musk and his supporters. Musk’s personal influence on the race, which he had called a "super big deal" to a crowd in Green Bay, seemed to fall flat with voters, raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of billionaire-driven political interventions.
Liberal Democrats, led by figures like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, saw the result as a major win, not just for Crawford, but for the message it sent about Musk’s influence over the judiciary.
"It’s time for them to walk away from this unelected, unpopular, unhinged and un-American billionaire puppet master," Jeffries declared after the results came in. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also joined in, applauding Wisconsin voters for rejecting what he saw as an extreme Republican agenda.
The loss in Wisconsin has raised significant concerns within the Republican Party, with many insiders wondering if Musk’s influence on the election backfired. Some Republican officials, such as Rohn W. Bishop, the mayor of Waupun, Wisconsin, warned that the outcome should serve as a "warning sign" for the party as it looks ahead to the midterm elections.
"I thought maybe Elon coming could turn these people to go out and vote," Bishop said, reflecting the widespread expectation that Musk’s support would help Schimel. Instead, he added, “I think [Musk] helped get out voters in that he may have turned out more voters against [Schimel].”
The results in Florida’s two deep-red House districts were similarly unsettling for the GOP. Republicans managed to hold onto the seats vacated by Trump allies, but not without struggling to secure the margins they had hoped for.
In the race to replace National Security Adviser Mike Waltz in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Trump-endorsed Republican Randy Fine secured a 14-point victory, but this was far lower than the 30-point margin Trump achieved in the district just four months earlier.
In Florida’s Panhandle, Republican Jimmy Patronis won by 15 points, a comfortable margin, but the district’s historic Republican dominance made this result feel less like a victory and more like a warning.
No Republican in the state’s 1st District has won with less than 64 percent of the vote since 2001, and the fact that Fine and Patronis underperformed relative to Trump’s previous margins raised alarms about the party’s future prospects in Florida.
While some Republicans attempted to downplay the significance of these defeats, including Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), who argued that the loss in Wisconsin was more of a referendum on the state’s Republican Party than Trump’s influence, it is hard to ignore the growing concerns over the GOP’s future.
Trump’s continued grip on the party, while still significant, is increasingly being questioned by those who feel that his divisive approach may be driving away moderate voters.
In addition, Musk’s increasing involvement in political matters has drawn both praise and criticism. While some view him as a champion of free-market principles, others see him as a dangerous figure with too much sway over American politics.
His efforts to influence the Wisconsin Supreme Court election through his personal wealth and influence over the GOP have left many questioning whether his brand of politics—shaped by his massive fortune and media presence—is too polarizing for mainstream voters.
For now, Republicans are hoping to maintain their House majority, but the warning signs are clear. As the midterm elections loom, the GOP is facing a difficult challenge in both Wisconsin and Florida, two states that were once seen as strongholds for the party.
The defeat in Wisconsin, where the GOP suffered a crushing blow despite Musk’s financial backing, has underscored the shifting political landscape in key battleground states.
Musk’s influence, and his close association with Trump, may have alienated some voters who are wary of billionaire-driven politics. The fact that Musk’s efforts failed to sway voters in a race as critical as the Wisconsin Supreme Court election suggests that the Republican Party may need to rethink its approach if it hopes to hold onto its power in the upcoming midterms.
The ongoing battle between the GOP’s conservative wing, represented by figures like Trump and Musk, and more moderate factions of the party, is likely to intensify as the midterms approach.
Republicans face the challenge of balancing the demands of their base, which has been energized by Trump’s populist rhetoric, with the need to appeal to independent and moderate voters who are turned off by the divisiveness that has characterized recent Republican politics.
In Wisconsin, Democrats are hopeful that they have found a strategy that works—leveraging Musk’s polarizing influence against him and positioning themselves as defenders of democracy in the face of rising authoritarianism.
If Democrats can continue to capitalize on these themes, they may be able to chip away at the GOP’s dominance in key states, ultimately changing the political landscape in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.
As the midterm elections draw nearer, the recent results in Wisconsin and Florida serve as a wake-up call for Republicans. The growing influence of Trump and Musk, while still formidable, is not enough to guarantee success in key races.
The GOP must contend with the shifting political dynamics and the increasing frustration among voters who are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs.
The Republican Party will need to reassess its approach to the midterms, particularly in battleground states like Wisconsin and Florida. As the party grapples with the fallout from these defeats, it will be forced to reckon with the consequences of its current strategy—and whether it can regain the trust of voters who are increasingly looking for new leadership and fresh ideas.
