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As the political machinery gears up for the significant legislative battles ahead, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has issued a stark warning to his Republican colleagues: passing President Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda—focusing on border security, energy reforms, and tax cuts—is unlikely to happen until at least July, and could drag well into the fall.
While much of the immediate focus in Washington has been on the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson’s slim majority presents challenges of its own, Republican senators are increasingly cautioning that getting a major package through the Senate will take far longer than anticipated. Internal party divisions and the sheer size of Trump’s proposals are already proving to be substantial obstacles.
In recent weeks, Thune has indicated that while he hopes to move a budget resolution before the April recess to show progress on Trump’s priorities, the final legislative package—the “finished product”—is still months away. The Republican senator’s assessment highlights the complexities and roadblocks involved in trying to pass a sweeping bill that touches on border security, tax policy, and energy reform, among other issues.
“Thune and others have said they don’t think it’s realistic we’ll move the finished product until the end of July,” a Republican senator shared, offering a glimpse into the expected timeline for the legislation.
Thune’s comments underscore the fact that while there may be optimism in the House about a quick passage of a package, the reality in the Senate is much more complex. “Thune said he thought that the House’s timeline on this was totally unrealistic and that the House doesn’t have their ducks in a row,” the source continued.
The House’s version of the budget resolution, which Johnson has aimed to push through quickly, still faces significant hurdles, particularly over the handling of tax cuts and proposed cuts to social programs like Medicaid.
Indeed, Johnson himself has been aggressively pushing for an accelerated timetable. In January, he stated that Republican leaders in the House were targeting April for final passage of a budget reconciliation package, which would address not only the extension of the 2017 tax cuts but also border security, defense spending, and energy reform.
Johnson has been clear in his intent to get the bill to the president’s desk by the end of April or early May, “before Memorial Day,” as he mentioned in an interview with CNBC on March 12.
However, many Republican senators are expressing skepticism about the feasibility of such a timeline, especially given the internal divisions within their own party. According to a second Republican senator, the reconciliation package may not be ready for passage in the Senate until late July or even September.
“Thune’s been having these small-group discussions, [and] in the one I was in, Senate Republicans were all over the map. There was no consensus,” the lawmaker warned.
This lack of consensus is likely to delay any final deal, potentially leaving the House to take the lead in order to keep Trump’s agenda on track and prevent delays well into the fall.
Even Senate leaders such as Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have acknowledged the difficulties in moving the legislation forward. Graham, who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, stated last month that the House-passed budget would need significant revisions before it could be passed in the Senate.
Most Republican senators support using a “current policy” baseline to estimate the cost of the reconciliation package, which would exclude the extension of the 2017 tax cuts from being counted as an additional deficit increase. However, not all are on board with this approach, with some senators questioning whether it truly reflects the fiscal impact of the legislation.
A key issue revolves around how to score the cost of extending the tax cuts. Senators like Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) have raised concerns about the long-term fiscal implications of continuing the tax cuts without adequate offsets. Cassidy, in particular, has expressed unease about the potential impact of federal deficits on interest rates.
This ongoing debate over tax policy is one of the major hurdles delaying progress on the reconciliation package.
Another contentious issue within the Republican Party centers around the proposed cuts to entitlement programs, particularly Medicaid. The House-passed budget resolution instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee to reduce the federal deficit by $880 billion over 10 years, a target that many experts believe would require deep cuts to Medicaid.
This has drawn vocal opposition from several Republican senators, including Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), and Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), who argue that significant reductions to Medicaid would harm many of their constituents.
“I would not do severe cuts to Medicaid,” Hawley stated in an interview with HuffPost in February, adding that he didn’t support large cuts to social programs that many Americans rely on. Boozman, too, expressed concerns, noting that Medicaid cuts would have a significant impact on his constituents in Arkansas.
“It depends what they’re going to do,” Boozman said, referencing the lack of details in the House-passed resolution about which programs would be targeted for cuts.
Jim Justice, the Republican governor of West Virginia, echoed similar sentiments, stressing that many West Virginians rely on Medicaid and that cuts to the program would be harmful. However, Justice also indicated a willingness to support reforms aimed at strengthening the program’s solvency, as long as they didn’t disproportionately harm vulnerable populations.
“From the standpoint of Medicaid, West Virginia has a gigantic participation,” Justice explained. “We have concerns, and we’re going to have to watch as this thing filters all the way through.”
In addition to Medicaid, another major point of contention is defense spending. The House-passed budget resolution calls for a $100 billion increase in defense spending, but Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) has argued that this amount is insufficient to address the growing threats posed by China and other adversaries.
Wicker has advocated for at least $175 billion in additional defense funding, underscoring the need to strengthen the defense industrial base to keep pace with global security challenges.
Wicker’s position highlights the sharp divisions within the GOP over defense priorities. While many Republicans support a strong defense posture, there is disagreement over the exact amount of funding necessary.
Wicker’s call for a larger increase in defense spending comes as the U.S. military grapples with shifting global dynamics and increasing competition from adversaries like China.
Despite these challenges, Senate Republicans remain determined to move forward with Trump’s agenda, even if it takes longer than expected. Thune, in particular, has emphasized the need for progress on the budget resolution, but the timeline for final passage remains uncertain.
As the summer recess approaches, it remains to be seen whether the Senate can come together to pass a comprehensive package that meets Trump’s priorities or whether the process will stretch into the fall.
For now, Republicans are caught between the urgency of delivering on Trump’s key issues and the reality of a deeply divided party. The internal negotiations are likely to continue well into the coming months, as senators from different factions of the GOP try to find common ground on some of the most contentious issues facing the country.
Whether they can come to an agreement that satisfies both the party’s conservative base and its more moderate members will be crucial to the success of Trump’s agenda and the future of the Republican Party.
As the Senate grapples with these challenges, all eyes will be on how GOP leaders manage to balance the competing interests of their party while striving to pass a package that aligns with Trump’s vision for America’s future. The path ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the next few months will be critical for the Republican Party’s legislative agenda.
