-(4)-1731951738-q80.webp){kind=small}
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, concerns are mounting across Asia about the future of U.S. alliances in the region.
Over the past four years, President Joe Biden has worked to solidify relationships with allies such as South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines amid growing threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.
Trump’s history of questioning alliances, demanding higher defense contributions, and prioritizing an “America First” agenda has left Asian leaders uncertain about how his leadership might reshape the region’s security dynamics.
China has been aggressively modernizing its military and nuclear capabilities while asserting its territorial claims in the South China Sea and threatening Taiwan. In the South China Sea, the Chinese Coast Guard has escalated confrontations with Philippine vessels, despite international rulings against its claims.
Meanwhile, North Korea has ramped up its nuclear rhetoric, weapons testing, and support for Russia, including providing ammunition, missiles, and troops for the war in Ukraine. These developments have drawn Asia closer to Europe’s crises, linking regional tensions to the global instability caused by Russia’s actions.
For decades, the U.S. has underpinned Asia’s security with a significant military presence, hosting tens of thousands of troops in treaty allies like South Korea and Japan. These alliances aim to deter aggression and limit nuclear proliferation by placing allies under the U.S. defense umbrella.
However, Trump’s criticism of what he perceives as “free-riding” allies and his unpredictable leadership style have raised fears that he may demand unsustainable defense contributions or even reduce U.S. forces in the region.
South Korea, for example, already spends over 2% of its GDP on defense and has contributed 90% of the costs for expanding Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. overseas base. Yet, Trump has previously suggested Seoul should pay $10 billion annually—eight times the current agreement.
Trump’s economic policies also pose challenges. His proposals for broad tariffs, including up to 60% on Chinese imports, could disrupt Asian economies heavily reliant on trade with the U.S.
While some view Trump as potentially more decisive than Biden in managing crises, his focus appears to prioritize economic competition with China over the strategic military balance in East Asia. This shift could weaken the U.S.’s role as a stabilizing force in the region.
In Japan, leaders are adjusting to the absence of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who adeptly managed Trump during his first term. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces pressure to emphasize Japan’s expanded defense posture, including increased military spending and the acquisition of American cruise missiles.
Countries across Asia are also closely watching whether the Trump administration will maintain Biden’s efforts to build a “latticework” of partnerships, such as the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the U.S.) and AUKUS (Australia, the U.K., and the U.S.), aimed at countering China’s influence.
Trump’s views on Taiwan, a potential flashpoint for U.S.-China conflict, remain ambiguous. While Biden has consistently supported Taiwan and approved direct military aid, Trump has suggested Taiwan should pay for its defense, likening U.S. support to an “insurance company.”
His administration’s reaction to a potential crisis involving Taiwan is uncertain, though his choice for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, is a staunch advocate for the island.
Observers worry that U.S. hesitation or perceived weakness in supporting Ukraine could embolden China to act against Taiwan, as Beijing closely monitors Western responses to Russian aggression.
The return of Trump introduces significant uncertainty for America’s allies in Asia. While some hope he may strengthen U.S. alliances and take a harder line against adversaries, others fear his unpredictable approach could undermine regional security and economic stability.
As governments across Asia brace for potential changes, they are also seeking to hedge against any decline in U.S. support, with countries like Japan looking to deepen partnerships with Europe to bolster their defenses.
The decisions Trump makes upon taking office will have far-reaching implications, not only for Asia’s stability but also for the credibility of Western deterrence worldwide.
